© LAT Images for Mercedes-Benz Grand Prix Ltd
By Adrian Mann
Here it is, the closest championship battle in Formula 1 since the 2018 season. We have all been waiting for such an intense battle for a long time now, but so was Lewis Hamilton.
So far the championship fight has been pretty even, with both drivers switching places at the top of the standings. They also put in some superb performances, there’s no doubt that either of them would make a worthy champion. Lewis triumphed in Bahrain, then Max at Imola, then Lewis again in Portugal and Spain, then Max in Monaco, France, and two times at the Red Bull Ring for the Styrian and Austrian grands prix. Lewis then fought back at Silverstone, and although he did not win, he brilliantly regained the championship lead in Hungary.
Of course, Red Bull has had the upper hand when it comes to who has the faster car for most of the season, but that is Formula 1 for you, one shouldn’t complain if a rival has better machinery.
Taking all this into account, the two contenders seem to be pretty evenly matched. Despite this, I am almost certain Lewis Hamilton will come out on top in this battle, as long as the cars remain close in terms of pace. I wasn’t sure at first, but now I am, and it’s all because of Lewis’ two most recent wheel-to-wheel battles, the one with Verstappen at Silverstone, and the one with Fernando Alonso at the Hungaroring. Here’s why.
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Hamilton vs. Verstappen at the British Grand Prix
Lewis’ battle with Max at the beginning of the British Grand Prix demonstrated that, no matter what else happens in the 2021 season, the seven-time champion will always have an advantage over the Dutch driver. And I’m not talking about racecraft or who was right or wrong in this instance, I’m talking about the differences in approach, which in part stem from a difference in experience.
Lewis Hamilton entered the British Grand Prix with a 32 points deficit to Verstappen. It was a race he had to win, or at least finish ahead of Max. When the two collided on Lap 1 of the race, Lewis, who would usually back down if the move is too risky, had no choice but to go for it. And it wasn’t an instinctive move, Lewis knew what he was doing. He needed to finish ahead of Verstappen, and the risk/reward ratio leaned heavily toward the reward side at this point.
In the case of Max, he had a comfortable lead in the championship. Even if he thought he was in the right when entering a risky situation, he could have afforded to concede the position, because the risk was too great. Even a P2 finish would have left him firmly at the top of the standings. What do you think Lewis would have done if he was in Max’s position?
We all know what happened then, both drivers risked a DNF as a collision was inevitable. Unfortunately for Max he was the one that lost everything and saw his lead in the championship diminish to just eight points. He could have easily lived on to fight another day.
Hamilton vs. Alonso at the Hungarian Grand Prix
This brings us to Hamilton’s battle with Alonso in Hungary, and the Spanish driver’s ‘moment of glory’. On Lap 32 of 69 Lewis found himself in P5, behind two-time world champion Fernando Alonso, who was in a significantly slower Alpine, on a track on which it is notoriously difficult to overtake.
Lewis’ main championship rival Max Verstappen was running in P10 at the time. If Hamilton remained in P5, while Max remained in P10, Lewis would still regain the championship lead.
Fernando Alonso had decided to make the overtake as difficult as possible and he proceeded to swerve around the track and do everything in his power to keep Lewis behind. There were several close encounters between the two drivers, which didn’t lead to a collision only because Lewis backed out. And why did Lewis back out, when he didn’t a race earlier with Verstappen? Because this time Alonso had nothing to lose, and Lewis had everything to lose.
You see, through his experience and common sense, Lewis knew that if he ended up in the gravel while battling Alonso, he would lose a perfect opportunity to regain the lead in the championship and go into the summer break with a big psychological advantage. It would be worth more for Lewis at that point to finish in P5 than to not finish at all.
This is why Alonso’s ‘glorious accomplishment’ of holding up Lewis for several laps actually means nothing. Lewis was ready to concede at any point if the manoeuvre seemed too risky. A man with everything to lose was fighting a man with nothing to lose. What do you think Max would have done if he was in Lewis’ position?
Conclusion
And there you have it. I believe in these two duels Hamilton demonstrated why he holds an advantage over Verstappen and why, if they have close enough machinery, he will ultimately come out on top. That’s not the only reason, we could argue over whose racecraft is better, but that is down to personal opinion. The factors I am talking about are not down to personal opinion, they have been demonstrated in pretty significant fashion in the last two races.
Nine times out of ten Lewis Hamilton will beat Max Verstappen because of three things: strategic thinking, experience and common sense.
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